With All Eyes On Stalled Talks In Geneva And ISIS Defeats Mounting, Erdogan Sets To Invade Syria

Which tyrant will fall first?

An excerpt from, "Syria's Enemies Seek Face Saving Escalation Measures" by b, Moon of Alabama, February 4, 2016:

In reaction to that victory the supporters of the insurgents and terrorists in Syria are likely to increase their efforts. The negotiations in Geneva failed over the Syrian victory and the Saudis had already promised that such a failure would lead to an increased support. The Saudi Defense Ministry declared today that Saudi ground forces could take part in action in Syria. It is doubtful that the Saudis have a real capability to do so.

But the Saudis and others will now again shower the insurgents and Jihadis in Syria with money and new weapons. A Turkish invasion could add momentum to such a move.

Such an invasion would be come at the Syrian and Turkish border between Azaz and Jarabulus that is currently under Islamic State control. The Syrian YPG Kurds plan to take that area with Russian help and to seal the border. Turkey does not want that to happen. Its well working lines of communication with the Islamic State must be kept open.

So is a Turkish invasion of Syria in preparation? My guess is yes.

But will it really happen? My guess is no.

An excerpt from, "Syria's Not Out of the Woods Yet - NATO's Last Gambit: Invading Syria" by Anthony Cartalucci, February 4, 2016:

Aleppo is now encircled and predictably rumors of a Turkish invasion of Syria are now circulating - because the West's terrorists are essentially defeated and will inevitably be chased back to where they came from - not some revolutionary cradle in Syria - but back over the border and into Turkey...

A full-scale invasion of northern Syria to carve out a safe-haven for these terrorists on Syrian territory is all NATO has left - it will require Turkey leading, perhaps after citing a manufactured provocation, and NATO following after Ankara invokes Article 5 (collective defense).

An excerpt from, "Rebels in Syria face critical defeat around Aleppo" by Michael Cruickshank, Conflict News, February 4, 2016:

Following the cutting of rebel territory, there have been claims that Turkey is planning to intervene directly in the Syrian conflict. Such reports are driven by repeated assertions by Turkish government officials that they plan to establish a safe zone in northern Syria for civilians and (likely) favored rebel groups. Encroachment on such areas by regime forces would make such an operation politically more difficult, so Turkey would have to take rapid and decisive action in the coming weeks should they be committed to this safe zone plan.

Among the most serious of these claims was that made by the Russian Defense Ministry which stated today that it had seen evidence of “a growing number of signs of hidden preparation of the Turkish Armed Forces for active action in Syria”. Accompanying this were a number of satellite images which they claim showed a build-up of Turkish armed forces along certain areas of the Syrian border. While these images are far from conclusive, when combined with earlier evidence of Turkey clearing mines alone its Syrian boarder, they show at the very least that the country is keeping its options open with respect to military intervention. With this in mind the next few weeks should show if the Syrian conflict has reached a tuning point in favor of the regime, or if a new phase of international intervention is set to begin.