July 28, 2013

Commentary On Egypt

Commentary On Egypt

An excerpt from, "History rhymes in Egypt" by Colonel Patrick Lang (July 27):
The forces of political Islam are now pitted against pretty much the rest of Egypt in the same sort of existential struggle. They all know that. Saudi Arabia is backing the military backed government because it detests the MB version of Islamism. The United States, having aligned itself with the MB, has zero leverage with General Sisi because the US backs people who would kill him if they could. There are other sources of military supply in the world. You can be sure that Israel is happy to see the departure of Mursi. That will have an effect in the US Congress. 
An excerpt from, "Conflicts Forum Weekly Comment" (July 27):
Yes, the key platform of the MB (the path to power through election) has been shattered. It has no political response. But victimhood too is very potent. And this ‘potency’ is something which the Brotherhood knows well how to use, and to manage.  It will come easily to them.  But there will be another consequence too – beyond a turn inwards and to a discourse of victimhood and resentment (and for evidence of the resentment, simply listen to Erdogan and the AKP leaders). In Lebanon, we have seen that when Islamist rank and file members (in this instance the Salafists of northern Lebanon) believed that they had been betrayed politically by March 14th, they simply deserted the docile Saudi orientations of Salafism – and many migrated to the various jihadist and Takfiri Salifist groups in Lebanon.  We can already witness this same process commencing in the disturbances taking place in the Sinai and in Suez zone.

General Sisi has appointed himself deputy PM, and an Islamist-free government half filled by members of the deep-state, established.  It will not be too long before the idealistic middle-class youth of Cairo wake up to the reality that they have restored Mubarakism without Mubarak (see here).  This will place the EU and the US in a serious predicament.  They have opted for a ‘let’s all move on, and be adult about the Army takeover’ line.  In short, the West – not from any obvious strategic interest – has defaulted into further entrenchment into the Saudi/Gulf camp, and into further explicit regional partisanship. Already it is plain that Saudi Arabia is putting Lebanon – after Egypt – into a similar play, seeking there, not a military coup on this occasion, but to tip the complex politics of Lebanon against Hizbullah, and in favour of Saudi’s Sunni protégés.  In Iraq, Gulf states have been for some time, looking to weaken Maliki.
Tarpley tweets:
#MoslemBrotherhood killers strike #Nasserists #Brahmi #Belaid in #Tunisia, #Musmari in #Libya-Gen #Sisi acted just in time to save #Egypt

Gen #Sisi may be New #NASSER needed by #Egypt as pro-army backers outnumber MoslemBros by overwhelming margin-beware #Sinai terror emirate 
An excerpt from, "Can Salafists Save Egypt?" by David Kenner (Foreign Policy, July 26):
With protests swelling in Egypt again today in response to army chief Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sissi's call for demonstrations in favor of "confronting" the Brotherhood, Bakkar's job is about to get a lot tougher. The Nour Party rejected Sissi's call for protests, saying that popular mobilization on both sides "foreshadows civil war."

For the Muslim Brotherhood, the Nour Party's actions amount to a historic betrayal -- an abandonment of Egypt's first Islamist government for short-term political gain. "They are very naïve, they don't have much experience playing politics," said senior Brotherhood official Amr Darrag. "Politically, they are our main opponents. So they thought this was a good time to put us aside, or weaken our position, or get rid of us, so that they can take charge as the leading party in the political life."

Bakkar, on the other hand, paints a picture of how the Morsy administration ignored the Nour Party's advice to defuse the political crisis for half a year, systematically antagonizing every Egyptian political player. "Facts are facts: The military decided to be with the people, so it was a matter of deciding whether to lose everything for the Islamic stream, or to keep a share in the next round," he said. "Especially when we are not convinced in [the Brotherhood's] way of governing, especially when we can see that normal people are against them."