November 19, 2022

Why Regimes Collapse

The Shah escaped to die a natural death, the mullahs will be hanged.

"Dictatorships supported by fear and terrorism are built on sand. Given time, such regimes collapse of their own rottenness. The tragedy is that, in that slow process, the innocent must suffer." - Melvin Price, U.S. Congressman, 1949. (Source).

After a decade of U.S. and UN sanctions Saddam Hussein's Iraq was ready to be busted open and rolled over with tanks. 

The Iraqi army didn't put up a fight because they saw the writing on the wall years earlier. 

Saddam came to power via an American-assissted coup so his grasp on power was never seen as legitimate. Without foreign assistance and a decade-long war with Iran his illegal rule would not have endured for so long. 

Nothing breeds dictatorial rule like a prolonged war. And that is a truth that the mullahs in Iran also benefited from in their quest to solidify power in the 80s. 

They had an opportunity to end the war against Iraq in 1982 after Saddam's initial invasion but instead they decided to stretch it out so they could use the time to remold Iranian society in their preferred Islamic image. 

As we've seen during the recent "global pandemic" societies are more moldable during times of crisis and panic. Politicians love an emergency. Priests love a holy war.

But while the mullahs were able to culturally engineer one generation of Iranians somewhat successfully, they have not been able to do it again. The younger generation hates them. So they know their days are numbered.

But the IRGC and the mullahs won't go down as easily as the Iraqi communists. These are fanatical and committed ideologues who will kill half the country to rule the remaining half. 

In their warped minds they are the heirs of a legitimate revolution and devout followers of a messianic religion. So convincing them to return to their barracks and mosques and let go of power will take more than disorganized street protests, foreign sanctions, and harsh words from the U.N.