The modern Middle East didn't suddenly become a mess on the morning of October 7, 2023.
It was a painful and tragic day for Israel, but when you pursue the path of war for decades there will be evil consequences.
And what Hamas did was totally evil and stupid. The slaughter of defenceless innocents is not a war tactic but an admission of defeat because it means the total abandonment of moral and religious principles which both sides constantly preach they're fighting for.
There is no doubt that the intent on the part of Hamas and its regional backers was to create an overreaction, which is what's happening now.
Calling for all out war and wiping Gaza off the map is crazy.
Lost in the rush to total war is the context that only an objective understanding of history can provide. A lot of people have the memory of a goldfish when it comes to this conflict. But it is important to remember how even recent events in the region and the world have influenced what we're witnessing.
Two contributing factors stick out.
The two most recent administrations in Washington gifted the Taliban billions of dollars of military hardware, which was more than likely passed onto Hamas via the global arms market.
Hamas was emboldened both by the Taliban’s victory over a superpower and the military arsenal provided to them.
In addition to receiving Western weapons, Hamas has also received significant military training from NATO's second largest army.
Turkey's assistance to ISIS enabled it to seamlessly transfer its knowledge and terrorist techniques to Hamas.
And Turkey did this training pretty much out in the open. Its growing regional influence has been supported by Israel and the West for the last decade. The American double crossing of the SDF in Syria, and the handover of land to Turkish-backed Islamist groups, strengthened Turkey, and by extension, Hamas and ISIS.
Israel's own active and public support for Turkey in their genocidal campaign in Armenia is still perplexing. I understand the basic geopolitics of it. The West wants Turkey to counter Russia and China in Central Asia. Azerbaijan would also be very useful in an attack on Iran. But it just seemed so short-sighted and stupid because strengthening Turkey will not be advantageous for Israel in the long-term.
But I guess that's par for the course.
America, Israel and the West decided to embrace Islamic fundamentalism in the form of the Taliban, Hamas, ISIS, al-Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic state of Pakistan, and the Ayatollahs of Iran a long time ago.