On Mexico:
Host nation bump. Fifth game curse. There are many narratives surrounding the Mexican national football team. Their group is sneaky tough but very manageable, especially with the home crowd factor in their favour.
When South Africa failed to make it out of the group stage as a host nation in 2010 they were in a group with Uruguay and France. So Mexico got lucky here.
South Korea and Czechia are strong opponents but beatable. They each will give the home side a good fight. Mexico will be battle tested for the knockout rounds. I have a good feeling Mexico makes it to the round of 16 this summer, where they will possibly face England. And anything can happen in a knockout game.
On USA:
The U.S. also finds itself in a very tricky group, with two particularly nasty opponents in Paraguay and Australia. These guys will claw and scratch their way to a tie or even manage to score a late winner after defending their guts out for ninety minutes. They're not fun to play against. Then you have a Turkish team that plays with youthful exuberance and enthusiasm. They have a lot of talent who have an eye for goal.
I don't like the chances of America finishing 1st or 2nd in this group. That first game against Paraguay will tell us a lot. I could see Paraguay fight their way to a couple of draws and finish with five points after winning their final game against Australia with an extra time set piece header. I think Turkey will come 1st and USA third, most likely setting up a game with one of the favourites in the first knockout round.
On Canada:
I also see Canada finishing 3rd in their group, with a good chance of making the knockout round, where they will come up against either Turkey or America, depending on who finishes first in that group. I just think Switzerland and Bosnia are too good and too experienced, with powerful veteran strikers that Canada's backline won't be able to contain.
Bosnia made the World Cup the hard way. They have momentum on their side after defeating Italy in the final European playoff game. A win like that gives a team tremendous belief, which is critical in a short tournament. I expect them to make it to the round of 16. After denying Italy a spot it would be a shame to see them fizzle out and not even advance past the group stage.
And I want Canada to finish 3rd because I'm hoping for a U.S-Canada game in the round of 32. I think it will be one of the more exciting and open-ended games we will see this summer. But it'll most likely be Turkey vs. Canada. And who knows, Turkey could enter that game with an arrogant attitude and slip up. They've been absent from the World Cup for 24 years so they have a lot to prove. Canada could still claim a big knockout victory after finishing third in their group.
On Portugal and Netherlands:
To win the World Cup you need a combination of health, squad depth, a strong midfield and defense, team cohesion, balance throughout the lineup, a desire to win, a selfish striker, young talented players looking to make a name, a good track record in recent tournaments, and a bit of luck.
After looking at the rosters of all the favourites to win the tournament I landed on Portugal and the Netherlands as the teams best fitting that description. Portugal has the best midfield of all the countries and the Netherlands has the best defense, with guys with a nose for goal from all over the field.
Netherlands has a weak striker, but in a World Cup you need players who can score from every position and the Netherlands have that. In the last World Cup they lost on penalties in the Quarter finals to the eventual winners and in the 2024 Euros they made it to the Semis. So they can taste it. They've been close to the finish line. They'll have the hunger to win. And Portugal will too because of the Ronaldo factor. The whole team will play harder to get him that trophy.
Brazil, France, and Spain will threaten, they will dominate throughout the tournament, but I really think this year we will see a first time winner of the World Cup.
