An excerpt from, "The Fall of Heaven: The Pahlavis and the Final Days of Imperial Iran" by Andrew Scott Cooper, Picador, 2018, pg. 284-85:
"Sharp-eyed readers who picked up their copy of that morning's Kayhan newspaper might have noticed the teasing headline on page nine: "Period of Trepidation Ahead Says Zodiac Calendar." According to the Asian zodiac, 1978 was the Year of the Horse. "It may be an occasion for trepidation," the paper reported. People born in horse years were distinguished by their "energy but are prone to be impatient and emotional, often going too far and creating friction with people around them." In a horse year, people tended to do whatever they wanted "without being nervous over small details." It was a time to let loose and not think of the consequences. It so happened that previous horse years in Iran had coincided with great upheavals. They included 1906, which Kayhan omitted to mention was the year of the Constitutional Revolution, when the Qajar Dynasty surrendered to a popular uprising, and also 1930, when "a world-wide economic depression brought widespread bankruptcy in many countries, encouraging the rise of extremist movements." One "startling prediction" even had it that in 1978 the holy book the Quran would become well known in the United States. Kayhan advised its readers to hold on---this year might be a wild ride.
Internationally syndicated newspaper columnist Gwynne Dyer indulged in the sort of idle but provocative speculation that often fills newspaper copy over the holiday season. He had history on his mind. Dyer reminded his readers that "the past we are condemned to relive (with only the names changed) is a past that included vast surprises. The Black Death, the French Revolution, the rise of Islam, the creation of the Soviet Union: nobody knew those things were coming, and yet they changed practically everyone's lives." Revolutions and religious unrest were historical "wild cards" that no one could predict with any certainty. As an example, he cited the Shah of Iran.
A modest example of a present-day wild card is the 'one bullet regime' of Iran. The Shah is clever, but he is not bullet-proof. If an assassin should get him (and several have tried) there is no quessing what would happen in Iran. Since the country supplies a large slice of Western Europe's and Japan's oil (and, according to foreign sources, almost all of Israel's oil imports), radical change in Iran would mean crisis not only in the Gulf but much farther afield.Yet history had a way of pulling surprises. Before she flew out of Iran, celebrity journalist Barbara Walters sat down with the Shah to gauge his views on developments in the Middle East. The previous day, Yasser Arafat had presided over a four-hour military parade in Beirut to mark the Palestine Liberation Organization's thirteenth anniversary. Before a crowd of eight thousand supporters in the war-torn city's municipal sports stadium, Arafat denounced National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski's recent comment that the Palestine Liberation Organization had "written itself off" for refusing to participate in regional peace talks. "It's not bye-bye PLO, Mr. Brzezinski," thundered Arafat. "It's bye-bye America again and again in the Middle East. Let it sink into Mr Brzezinski's and even Carter's brain that America's entire interests shall be written off rather than the PLO." Arafat was flanked by top Palestinian commanders and faction leaders including George Habash, leader of the more radical left-wing Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. "There will never be an alternative except the gun, the gun, the gun!" Arafat told the cheering crowd.
Arafat's threat to attack U.S. interests in the Middle East held special resonance for Washington's chief ally in the region. The Shah was Israel's main oil supplier, President Sadat's friend, and the most vocal regional supporter of the Egypt-Israel peace talks. No other Muslim leader dared express support for a treaty resolving the conflict between the two states. If the Shah was removed from the scene the U.S. strategic position would be severely weakened and Israel left dangerously exposed. The Shah's remarks to Barbara Walters suggested that he understood he had been threatened by Arafat and Habash, who ran the terror camps where young Iranian revolutionaries trained. He made it clear that he expected a rough time of it over the next twelve months. "But the destructive, negative elements everywhere are in turmoil," he told Walters. "Everywhere they are up to some mischief. And somewhere, all the elements of trouble are on the loose and unleashed. So every country should expect those elements to try to foment some trouble." Iran's rain catcher saw storm clouds on the horizon.
An excerpt from, "The Broken Crescent: The "Threat" of Militant Islamic Fundamentalism" by Fereydoon Hoveyda, Praeger Publishers, 1998:
In many respects, Ayatollah Khomeini resembled a medieval man catapulted into the twentieth century by some quirk of fate. Every aspect of modernity hurt him. His vocabulary sounded like the epithets proclaimed by the monks of the remote past: satans, enemies of God, corruptors on Earth, infidels, miscreants, heretics. His branding of the United States as the "Great Satan" (and other Western countries as lesser ones) attempted to introduce into contemporary politics references to the cosmic struggle of "Evil versus Good." It has at least given Islamic activists recognizable enemies to knock down. Israel, a "Western pawn or a Trojan horse" implanted in the Middle East, must be destroyed. "Corrupt" Muslim leaders who cooperate with America should be overthrown. A jihad (holy war) should be waged against all "enemies of God" who do not convert to Islam or at least submit to its rule.
The medieval vocabulary revived by Khomeini and his followers seems to have struck a chord with Muslim masses at large. It reminds them of the "Golden Past" when Arab horsemen spread the "message of God" and conquered an empire that stretched from India to Spain. It also conjures up the legendary towering figure of Salah-ad-Din (Saladin) who defeated the Crusaders and liberated the holy city of Jerusalem. Moreover, this language of the past reactivates confidence in the future. The present does not offer to them any prospect of a better life. They tend to believe the dreams of success and welfare that the militant fundamentalists dangle before their eyes. The secret of a bright future lies in the past. They have to resuscitate the times when Muslims were engaged in noble battles in order to impose God's will on the whole world. Paradise is behind them. The holy past must be restored. The Islamic law should be implemented in its entirety. Muslims should rediscover the "pure and true" Islam and regain their own strength.
In the West, where the designation of "Great" or "Small" Satan brings about smiles, the bombings, hijackings, hostage takings, and similar hostile acts have given rise to alarm and dread. At the same time, a persistent stereotype of Muslims as terrorists has gained currency in public opinion. Plain people are afraid of Islam and Muslims, especially after they learn that many Middle Eastern leaders condone these crimes and, worse, some states such as Iran, Iraq, Libya, Sudan, and Syria promote them. It is as if recent events had revived in the collective psyche of Westerners memories of the seventh and early eighth centuries when Beduin armies hurled through Iberia and pushed northward as far as Poitiers (France), sowing panic along their trail.
