I. The Syria File
Syria under its new al-Qaeda government will become a Sunni Arab version of the Islamic Republic of Iran, a very religious state whose security apparatus is composed of terrorists and ideologues.
Getting rid of the Alawites in Syria's coastal mountains is part of their strategy to consolidate power and create a unified, homogeneous, Sunni Arab theocratic state.
If Washington and Jerusalem want to dump Palestinian refugees in this hellhole they're asking for long-term disaster.
What's the point of defeating Hamas in Gaza if you just give their kin a larger state, money, and help double their population overnight? It doesn't make sense strategically or militarily. It's very short-term thinking.
That's the Israeli angle.
But there's more to the story.
If I read correctly, Washington strong-armed the Kurds and the SDF into legitimatizing the terrorist government in Damascus by making them sign a deal with the head terrorist there.
It's a bad deal and not worth the paper it was written on. Negotiating with Jihadists never works, regardless of their public attire. They want domination, not cooperation, no matter the country they occupy.
I don't see this awkward Kurdish-Al-Qaeda partnership under American guidance lasting very long. And the deal was struck while the Alawites were being butchered in the streets so it was just bad business all around. Making deals with killers and terrorists who haven't even been elected and don't have any popular mandate is not a wise move.
II. The Red Sea Troubles
President Trump’s decision to bomb the Houthis in Yemen yesterday confirmed my original suspicions that he is Israel's first president.
Giving Israel billions of dollars since his inauguration is one thing, but starting a war primarily in defense of Israel crosses the line. Trump can no longer claim he's acting in the best interests of his country. He is either another blackmailed slave in high office, or he genuinely cares more for Israel's security than America's, because on this front their interests do not align.
There's a path to peace, to talk the Houthis down, and dissuade them from any interference in international shipping. But Trump isn't interested. He is taking his cues from the madman Netanyahu instead of sitting down and talking with the other side.
III. The Looming American-Israeli-Iranian War
The Houthi-American exchange of fire could very rapidly turn into a broader war, engulfing the whole region. Such a war won't be limited to the Red Sea or the Middle East. It would cripple the world economy unless it's a quick war.
Any such war is tragic and counterproductive, much like the Ukraine-Russia war.
Iran, America, and Israel should be strategic allies in this region, as should Russia and Ukraine since they share a common history, language, and border.
Historically the enemies of Iran in the modern era have been Britain, Russia, and Turkey. It was American political intervention at the end of WWII that ended the illegal British-Russian occupation of Iran at that time.
Russia's present day alliance with Iran is a historic anomaly and it's purely a matter of politics, not based in shared geopolitical interests or a long-term vision for the region. I highly doubt Russia and Iran will remain allies in the future. I anticipate a falling out.
So why wage war when it's against one's national interests? Why commit strategic suicide?
Both Washington and Tehran are behaving irrationally from a strategic point of view because they are ruled by elites who do not have their countries' best interests in mind. Both nations are led by very nasty people.
The satanic pedophiles and child rapists who rule in Washington are wholly owned by Israel. To even speak of American sovereignty at this point in history is laughable. Israel is the true soverign in Washington. It is at war with Islam, not just Hamas, Iran, the Houthis, or this or that little group. And it needs America and the West to fight this war because alone it would get crushed.
The funny thing is there's no Islam to speak of. The Ummah doesn't exist. Muslim solidarity is a myth. After the end of the Ottoman Caliphate in WWI there hasn't been a worthy successor.
Israel's existence could have been recognized and legitimatized had it sought peace with the Palestinians after WWII instead of advancing on the path of total conquest. The Ayatollahs in Iran would not have had a leg to stand on in the region all these years had Israel been led by wiser rulers.
But, with that said, they're still wiser than the idiots in charge of America and Iran.
In the war between Israel and Islam, America and Iran would be the main losers.
Tehran would be happy to see Iran burn to the ground if it meant the flag of Islam flying high in Jerusalem. Whether they have the military capabilities to storm Jerusalem is another matter. With Assad gone and Hezbollah decapitated, it's in no position to start any trouble.
The most essential factor they're lacking, which is a prerequisite for the waging of any major war, is popular legitimacy. Mobilizing a population to fight an unpopular war could be achieved for a year or two, like in Ukraine, but it's not sustainable.
Sure, people can be rounded up like sheep, and driven to war against their will, but how effective can such an army be? Not much, as we're seeing in Ukraine.
Terrorist groups, mercenaries, rogue regimes, nuclear pariahs, puppet governments, can't wage war, they can only inflict terror. Only true sovereign powers, with widespread popular support, strong military capabilities, and government legitimacy, can wage wars to the end. In the world today that list is fewer than five. America, the EU, Israel, the Gulf states, and Iran are not among them.
