September 10, 2021

The Coming Collapse And Break-Up of Pakistan


History shows that no nation or polity is too big to fail. 

The rise and collapse of empires and regimes can happen within one or two generations. 

And history moves fast during times of great change.

Nobody foresaw a Taliban takeover in Afghanistan on the 20th anniversary of 9/11. But stranger things have happened and will happen.

The Taliban is weak and unpopular but it may outlive its patron, Pakistan.

Pakistan faces a severe debt crisis. It is in huge debt to China and reliant on IMF loans to stay afloat. 

Its attachment to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan spells greater trouble for its economy. 

Instead of building up their country the military leaders of Pakistan decided to take on another failed state and put terrorists in power. They should have put their own house in order first.

Afghanistan can potentially be a rich feeder state for its new overlords. If it all goes according to plan Pakistan can pay back Chinese loans with Afghanistan's lucrative mineral wealth. 

But that's unlikely to happen. 

Controlling Afghanistan is a pipe dream.

Pakistan will be stuck with managing the chaos it has unleashed and it will fail at it. 


An excerpt from the video below: 

"Host: Now that we've established such a thing could happen, what happens after? How can we prepare for it? What do we need to do to prepare for a balkanized Pakistan?

Rishabh Gulati: If we are seeing the economic collapse, the Jihadi takeover, terrorist state, facing secession movements, all at the same time, internationally isolated...If this country collapses in our generation, which is very likely to collapse, what is the plan? Do we have a plan in place for it or not? Because when it happens, where are the people going to go? The refugees will go where? To Afghanistan? To Iran? No. The first place they're going to come is India. Just like in Bangladesh. The first place they're going to come is India for obvious reasons, there will be family connections, there will be ethnic connections, cultural connections. 

So what's the plan we need in place?

Number one priority has to be that when the state authority of Pakistan begins to crumble, in association with foreign countries, maybe the United States, and I know some plan already exists between the U.S. and India, is how do we immediately go in and lock down Pakistan's nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons sites. The number two priority has to be that the Wahhabi-Jihadi elements that are sitting in Pakistan, what can be done to immediately go and cut them off from Pakistani society because unless you do that the Wahhabi radical element takes over in the chaos." (7:20 - 9:40).

What Happens If Pakistan Collapses ? |NewsX. September 10, 2019.