August 13, 2016

The Post-Liberation of Mosul: What Happens When The Common Enemy Is Defeated?

Photo of the Mosul Dam. 

An excerpt from, "The challenge in Mosul won’t be to defeat the Islamic State. It will be what comes after." By David Petraeus, The Washington Post, August 12, 2016:
The best vehicle for carrying this out would be a provincial council like the one set up in 2003, and through a similarly inclusive process. Importantly, Shiite militias should play no role in post-Islamic State security and governance. Because Nineveh and the other Sunni Arab provinces lack significant energy resources and the leverage they provide, Kurdish-style constitutional autonomy is not a viable option. Nonetheless, Baghdad and Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi will need to be prepared to make more explicit commitments about levels of resourcing, and also perhaps grant the region greater autonomy in determining spending priorities. 
An excerpt from, "Qassem Soleimani to play “major role” in Mosul operations" By Amir Toumaj, Long War Journal, August 12, 2016:
Soleimani is rumored to have arrived in Iraq last week to prepare for the battle of Mosul with the Iraqi government forces and PMF. An unnamed Iraqi parliamentarian claimed in an Asharq al Awsat article on August 3 that Soleimani arrived without a passport and visited Mosul, Kirkuk, and the Nineveh area.
An excerpt from, "The Impending Battle of Mosul Will Define Iraq’s Future" By Tom Rogan, National Review, March 4, 2016:
Preparations for the offensive have been meticulous. Led by a highly experienced U.S. Army general, Sean McFarland, the U.S. military and its allies — especially the Canadians — have trained a combination of Iraqi-army units and Kurdish peshmerga forces for the assault. In recent weeks, they have also cut ISIS supply lines and facilitation nodes that surround the city. In addition, with the Tigris River cutting through Mosul’s center, the Iraqi army has a terrain feature against which ISIS forces can be compressed. If Western leaders are willing to embed their air -attack controllers with Iraqi units, success will be far more likely.
An excerpt from, "The big battle: Everyone wants a piece of the Mosul cake" By Ali Kurdistani, Rudaw, August 11, 2016:
The problem is not in liberation of Mosul, it is what happens after ISIS. This is a very important point. There should be an agreement between all parties before the battle starts, under the supervision of US, coalition and the UN in order to prevent tension and problems. There is the possibility that after liberation there will be problems, as there is now in Shingal or similar to what happened in Tuz Khurmatu. When there are three or four different groups and they in dispute, for sure this will cause problems. I am not sure if foreign combat forces will be part of the operation or not, but according to some information, their numbers are increasing day by day.
Mosul is an important province in Iraq. It’s land size is about 37-38 thousands square kilometers, and its population is more than 3 million people, therefore Mosul is important for many actors: the Americans, the Kurds, Sunnis, Iraqi government as well as Iran and Turkey, and there are important minorities like Yezidis and Christians and they have been oppressed a lot in Mosul. The US and EU are carefully watching the Mosul battle and they will do so after liberation. There are Turkish forces in the Mosul area, and Iran is also watching the battle with interest, therefore this battle will be very different from other battles that have taken place in Iraq.
An excerpt from, "The day after ISIS is defeated" By Noam Tibon, The Times of Israel, May 2, 2016:
The last time borders were drawn in the Middle East was in 1914, when European diplomats drew illogical borders based upon British and French zones of influence; while completely disregarding issues such as demographics, sectarianism, the economy, natural resources, and other factors. The new borders should be drawn in precisely the opposite manner. They should be based almost exclusively on these issues, and, above all, along the lines of religious partition.

The solution offered here will not please everyone. Turkey will fear the establishment of a Kurdish state on its border. Iran will resist the decrease of its net influence in Iraq. Israel and Jordan will also surely have concerns about the rise of a new Sunni state on their borders. Yet I believe that an exhibition of courageous American leadership in the region could mitigate most of these concerns. When the rulers of the Middle East become convinced that the US is not ‘pivoting away’ from the area, and instead is willing to intervene in order to bring about solutions, it will also be possible to advance controversial, but necessary initiatives.
An excerpt from, "Ways & Power Of Love: Techniques Of Moral Transformation" By Pitirim A. Sorokin. 2002. Templeton Foundation Press; Pennsylvania. Pg. 305.
"In the selfish and hate-laden nature of the bond, which binds together the inimical parties, lies the weakness of this technique. Though once in a while in the process of common struggle against the enemy, the bond of hatred and fear of the common enemy is transformed into a tie of real comradeship and lasting friendship, more often than not, this bond breaks as easily as it is thrown around the parties. As soon as the common enemy is defeated, the coalition of the "strange bed-fellows" disintegrates. Former enmity of the temporary allies reasserts itself, and they resume their previous struggle. In it they often enter into alliance with the defeated common enemy."
Video Title: Inside US Camp Close to IS Held Mosul. Source: National Self Reliance Association. Date Published: August 6, 2016. Description:
Hundreds of additional US troops are due to arrive in northern Iraq to provide assistance to local forces as they prepare for a major push to recapture Mosul from the so-called Islamic State.