February 13, 2016

Turkey's Invasion of Syria To Curtail The Kurds Will Reap Short-Term Benefits, But Also Long-Term Losses

Saudi Arabia and Turkey have hitched their wagons to a losing horse.

Events in Syria have taken a predictable turn with Turkish shelling of Kurdish positions in recently liberated areas. This latest aggression by Ankara to prevent and rollback Kurdish gains most likely has the tacit approval of the other Muslim regimes in Iraq, Syria, and Iran, all of whom don't want to see Kurdish aspirations for statehood come to fruition.

It is not even the Muslim states that are the most resistant to Kurdish independence. Their own prejudiced, ignorant, and brainwashed populations see the advancement of rights for the Kurdish people as a nefarious Zionist plot to carve up their nations.

It doesn't matter how many battles YPG wins in Syria or how much territory the Kurds take back, because the biggest obstacles the Kurdish people face have always been political, social, and cultural, like Israel.

Israel can win as many wars with its Muslim neighbours as it likes, but unless Muslims evolve and recognize the existence and rights of minorities like the Kurds and Jews they will be fighting wars for another century.

Although there will be some short-term benefits for Turkey as a result of this risky move, there will definitely be long-term losses as well, especially in its own southeast where the peace process between the Turkish government and the PKK has been abandoned.

The likelihood of Turkey winning this war is very low. Turkey is not fighting a war against a foreign-backed insurgency or a terrorist group with no local popular support, as Syria is with ISIS, but a people that comprises 18 percent of its entire population. So unless the Turks have genocide on their minds again their gamble in Syria won't pay off in the long run.

An excerpt from, "Turkey Shells Kurds In Syrian Border Village After Recapture" by Hana Levi Julian, The Jewish Press, February 13, 2016:
Over the weekend, Turkish forces shelled the Syrian village of Maranaz and the Menagh airbase, both of which were re-captured recently by the Kurds.

Israel is watching the situation in Syria closely; events across the northern border have serious potential to affect Israeli national security. Although Israel coordinates its activities with Russia, that doesn’t mean every move by Moscow is one that works well for Jerusalem across the northern border. Nor does Russia necessarily take into consideration how its military activities might impact Israeli security. The same holds true for Turkey.

Coverage earlier in the day by international media claimed Turkish artillery was aiming its shelling at villages that were under the control of Jaysh al-Thuwar (Revolutionary Army), not YPG, (Kurdish People’s Protection Units militia). A Turkish government source told Reuters on Saturday that Turkey’s military force shelled YPG targets near the town of Azaz in northern Syria. The source did not explain the extent or reason for the shelling.
An excerpt from, "The "Race To Raqqa" Is Quickly Intensifying" by b, Moon of Alabama, February 13, 2016:
The war against Syria, waged by the U.S., Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, was so far carried out by proxy forces and froeign mercenaries within Syria's borders. When the Syrian government was on the verge of losing the successful Russian intervention turned the war around. German intelligence no asserts (in German) that the Syrian government is winning the war against the foreign supported insurgents.

As the war by proxy against Syria has now failed, the anti-Syrian powers have decided to join the action on the ground with their own forces. The "fight against ISIS" (which the Syrians and Russian are fighting more than anybody else) is now the pretext to capture eastern Syria, to split the country in half and to destroy the Syrian government and state.

The "civil war" in Syria is now developing into an large international war over the future of Syria and the whole Middle East. 
An excerpt from, "Turkey’s Second Army Prepares to Invade Syria" by Brian Kalman, South Front, February 12, 2016:
Recent public comments by the Turkish government have hinted at a possible invasion into Syrian territory to “stabilize” the situation and secure Turkey’s national security. Significant clashes between Turkish army and security forces with elements of the YPG and PKK, which have exacted a costly toll on the Kurdish civilian population have been raging in southern Turkey and northern Syria in recent months. Russian satellite surveillance and human intelligence employed by both Russian and Syria in the region have confirmed the build-up of troops and material on the border.

It is reasonable to believe that Turkey is preparing to salvage its failed policy of supporting Islamic fundamentalist mercenaries and terrorist groups in Syria by invading and establishing a safe area for these groups along its southern border with Syria, while at the same time dealing a crushing blow to the Kurdish forces that have been successful in fighting them. Turkey is not only trying to topple the Assad government in Syrian, but is also trying to liquidate the Kurdish treat both in Iraq and Syria, as well as within its own borders.

Turkey’s membership in NATO complicates its plans of invasion. Unless Turkey is itself attacked, the NATO alliance is not obligated to defend the nation. Turkey will have to engineer a provocation that frames it as the target of an aggression either by Kurdish forces from beyond its borders or by Syrian or Russian forces combating its terrorist allies in Syria. Such a false flag provocation in not outside of the realm of possibility.
The most obvious strategic aim of a Turkish invasion into Syrian territory would be to secure a sizable “safe zone” for Turkish-backed insurgents and terrorist forces in northern Syria. Not only would this salvage the Turkish proxies for future use, possibly in guerilla style attacks and acts of terrorism against Syria, but would more importantly drive a wedge between the Kurdish YPG forces in Northwestern Syria (north of Idlib Province) and those located in the Northeastern Syria (east of Jarabulus).
The Turkish government is determined to make sure that the YPG does not gain control of the Kurdish dominated regions in an unbroken area all along the border. The YPG has recently been successful in attacks against Turkish-backed terrorists in small offensives in this “wedge” between YPG areas of control. These offensives have been backed by Russian air operations and with airdrops of weapons and ammunition in recent weeks. It is most likely the prospect of greater territorial gains by the Kurds that the Turkish Army will be deployed to prevent. How the Turkish military command plans to carry out such an operation successfully, and how the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russia will respond will determine the course of the conflict and undoubtedly the odds of a wider war.
By bringing to light, in embarrassing detail, the Erdogan regime’s illegal activities in direct support of internationally recognized terrorist groups and the illegal plunder of the oil resources of Syria and Iraq and the establishment and operation of the logistics network that facilitates the sale of the oil at great profit to the Erdogan family itself, Russia has laid the truth bear to the world. In so doing, they have also allowed Erdogan a way to back off the stage, so to speak, and abandon his misguided aspirations in Syria. Continued support by NATO and the United States in light of the ugly realities of Turkey’s actions in the conflict, will only undermine both parties’ legitimacy in the eyes of the international community.
An excerpt from, "End NATO Now. “An Insanity that’s Driving the World Inexorably Toward World War III” by Eric Zuesse, Strategic Culture Foundation, February 13, 2016:
The continuation of NATO, after its counterpart the Warsaw Pact ended in 1991, is an insanity that’s driving the world inexorably toward World War III.

The trigger for that war is now being set by NATO member Turkey, which wants to invade neighboring Syria, and which has the support of the Gulf Cooperation Council (including the world’s biggest buyer of US weapons, Saudi Arabia) who are massing troops and weapons on Syria’s northern border, in preparation for an invasion southward into Syria.

Once they invade Syria from Turkish territory, it won’t be enough for the Syrian army and its Russian ally to wage war against them inside Syria, because the invaders will then need to be counter-attacked in order to be defeated, and so there will be an invasion of NATO-member Turkey – a counter-invasion, in defense against Syria’s invaders – a counter-invasion which, however morally necessary it will be, will trigger nuclear war, for this reason.