March 1, 2014

The (Very Sane) Reason Why Russia Seized Two Airports In Crimea

An excerpt from, "The Crimean Anti-Coup Move" by 'b' of Moon of Alabama, March 1, 2014:
An alleged attempt by coup forces to seize the interior ministry of the Crimea tonight was repelled. In Kiev anti-Russian Tatars call for more trouble:
Meanwhile, Tatar lawmaker Mustafa Dzhemilev of Batkivshchyna has asked acting President Oleksandr Turchynov to deploy the entire Ukrainian army to Crimea. 
“I spoke with Turchynov that all of our military might should be deployed to Crimea. There are no threats in other oblasts yet. Call a state of emergency and take control,” said Dzhemilev cited by RBK-Ukraine.
The picture emerging from the above seems to show that:
  • Turkish intelligence helped with training Tatars in support of a local Crimea anti-Russian coup
  • Russian intelligence has thoroughly penetrated the coup-plotters communications (see Nuland tape) and knew what was coming
  • Russian aligned forces secured the Crimea and prevented infiltration of more Tataric units from Turkey
  • On the Crimea, as well as in other Russian aligned areas in east Ukraine (Donetsk, Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk), counter coups are establishing separate regions which will ask for Russian support and eventual incorporation into the Russian Federation
  • If all this goes well for the Russians the "western" coup in Kiev will have resulted in the "west" acquiring a bankrupt, dirt poor west Ukraine while Russia will acquire the industry and resource rich east Ukraine and will keep the Crimea as its strategic asset
  • In the context of the war of Syria the coup in the Ukraine was a countermeasure to Russian support for Syria. Unless the Crimea falls to coup forces that countermeasure will have failed.
An excerpt from, "What really happened overnight in Crimea?" by The Vineyard of the Saker, February 28, 2014:
Finally, it was reported that a Turkish airliner which was scheduled to land in Crimea decided to turn around and fly back upon hearing the news of the seizure of the airports.

What does all that mean?

I will be honest with you and immediately admit that I don't know for sure. My sense is that something triggered an alert on the Russian side, possibly the arrival of the Turkish aircraft. After all, why did it turn back instead of either landing like other aircraft did, or land somewhere nearby? Could it be that there was something aboard this plane which the Turks did not want the Russians to seize?