The Western powers are now hearing respected men like Ryan Crocker
suggest that they have to get used to the reality that Assad may have to
stay. But that is not the way to stop the killing or end the stalemate.
The opposition and the Gulf states, not to mention American leadership,
can never accept the status quo ante. By contrast, the Russians and Iranians cannot accept the forcible removal of their ally and the rise of a Sunni jihadi
state that will surely plunge Lebanon into war and the Shi'ites of
Lebanon into desperation, not to mention the destruction of non-Muslim
minorities.
"Ceasefire" must be socialized into the mindset of every party to
this conflict. Each for its own reasons will see this as a "win" if it is framed properly. Assad will see it as a win because he will have survived a war and a global effort to remove him from power. The opposition, excluding the radical jihadis,
will see it as a win because the will control much of the country. If
they are smart they will realize that a ceasefire will give them control
over much more, and with time, the whole country -- this because the
people are mostly with them, and where they are not, in deep Alewite
country, they were never going to control that anyway. Obama will see it
as a win because he will have staked his legacy on diplomacy and
negotiations over war, and Russia and Iran will see it as a win because
they will have stuck by their ally in the face of Western forces. The
people will see it as a win because they will have stopped dying and
starving, but what's more, their voices will have gained more and more
of an upper hand, to a degree at which extremists, shabiha and mukhabarat,
are forced back into the shadows by international presence,
verifications of safety, and eventually internationally observed
governance and elections.
The big losers will be those who fantasize about the continuation of
an endless Assad dynasty. That is DOA, and everyone knows it. Another
big loser is the radical jihadis, but they are being used by
everyone, from Assad himself to Qatar, for tactical ends only. These
young criminals, abused and abusing the Muslim world, will be herded out
of the country for Burma or the Central African Republic, by both the
FSA and Assad. They will move on until the Muslim world tires of the
Gulf funders bleeding their youth and terrorizing Islamic lands by
brainwashing these young criminals. My bet is that Saudi Arabia is
already done with this abuse, and Qatar will have to be called out and
humiliated if they persist in funding war in Syria after everyone else
presses for ceasefire. Assad will cheat and abuse, but the more
international presence there is throughout Syria, the harder this will
become. This is why the UN will become crucial, which will only happen
with greater Russian/American consensus and more American/Iranian
normalization, which may be coming.
We need to hear the word "ceasefire" from the lips of major diplomats
and strategists. The people of Syria will die without it, and everyone
will gain something from ceasefire.
A ceasefire is all well and nice, but there is a country called Israel, maybe you've heard of it, that does not want the fighting to cease in Syria and seeks the destruction of the country, its infrastructure, its economy, and its army. And it has a lot of pull in Washington and the media, so to completely ignore its role in this three-year long conflict as well as in the media's representation of it is delusional and/or deceptive. But, yeah, a ceasefire by all sides is the best short-term scenario that eventually could lead to a real political and comprehensive solution that will satisfy all Syrians, regional actors, and international powers.
Here is a
quote by Dr. Thomas Daffern, director of the UK-based
International Institute of Peace Studies and Global Philosophy, on a ceasefire in Syria:
"What I'm calling for is a ceasefire, a unilateral, universal ceasefire
in Syria by all parties. But it's a mental or spiritual ceasefire I'm
calling for first. We're not going to get the guns put down until the
minds are changed, until the hearts are changed. What I'm talking about
in this brief little presentation is the metaphysical and psychological
preconditions for a physical ceasefire. Let politicians and military
people work out that. I'm calling for everyone with a conscience, and
with a functioning mind and heart, and brain, to work on that mental
ceasefire." - Dr. Thomas Daffern [Source].
3. An excerpt from, "Syria's Raging Health Crisis" by Adam P. Coutts and Fouad M. Fouad, New York Times, January 1:
The collapse of the health system and a lack of basic sanitation in
opposition-held areas have created prime conditions for outbreaks of
vaccine-preventable diseases. Syria eradicated polio 14 years ago; the
fact that it has returned represents more than a breakdown of health
care during civil war. It is symptomatic of how the international
community, in its response to the crisis, has neglected public health.
Immunization coverage in what are now mainly opposition areas was
already below accepted standards in 2011, but the situation has
deteriorated. Data on routine immunization from the World Health
Organization reveal that over the past two years a large proportion of
the Syrian population has gone without vaccination.
Across Syria, coverage went down to 60 percent in 2012, and was as low
as 50 percent in the embattled eastern city of Deir al-Zour, a front
line between government and rebel forces. The latest W.H.O. figures from
2013 show that the level is now down to 36 percent in largely
rebel-held Deir al-Zour Province, although it has remained at 100
percent in government-controlled areas such as the western stronghold of
Tartus.
Given these conditions, it was no surprise to medical practitioners that
a polio outbreak occurred. The question is why the international
community did not prepare better for this eventuality. A disturbing part
of the answer is that the United Nations itself has aggravated the
situation.
Like other United Nations agencies, the World Health Organization works
directly with the Syrian government. The W.H.O.’s Syria office is in the
Ministry of Health building in Damascus; many of its staff members are
former ministry employees. A recent Reuters report on how the Assad
government uses red tape and threats to prevent the provision of aid in
opposition areas has raised doubts about the ability of the W.H.O. to
act with impartiality.
