January 17, 2014

Is There A Ceasefire In The Making In Syria? Will It Be Enforceable?

For many of the Jihadist extremists who have invaded Syria in the hopes of establishing a radical Islamic emirate, fighting until the end means fighting until the end of Assad, and then fighting some more. The word ceasefire does not exist in their worldview. They are seeking the complete destruction of the secular state in Syria. They will not abandon this idea.

But there are some reasonable people among the opposition forces, sprinkled here and there for the photographers and the cameras to make it appear to the world that they are a moderate bunch, who would welcome a temporary ceasefire since they are currently losing the fight.

But even if a minimal ceasefire were to be accepted by international and regional powers, the current Syrian regime, and the secular rebels, and only contained to a city or two, there is no guarantee that it would be enforceable.

A ceasefire would serve as a good excuse to sideline the Jihadist extremists from the narrative of the war, but they have already been sidelined in the media, so that's a mute point, and, also, the war wouldn't even exist without them, so a ceasefire that only includes Assad's forces, Hezbollah, and the few secular rebels in the opposition is a ceasefire in name only. That leaves the other half with their guns still firing.

As long as the Jihadist extremists represent the bulk of the fighting opposition, and they continue to get funds and arms from their friends in high places, there will be no ceasefire. If they agree to a ceasefire they would only follow through with the agreement for a few weeks for strategic reasons, to stock up on arms, treat their wounded, and relocate.

Agreeing to a ceasefire with these murderous fanatics should be the last thing on any sane person's mind in the Syrian government. 

Video Title: Syria floats Aleppo ceasefire plan ahead of Geneva II peace conference next week. Source: euronews. Date Published: January 17.
Could the guns soon fall silent in the city of Aleppo?

Syria's Foreign Minister, Walid Al-Moualem meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, has proposed a ceasefire in the city that some rebels have said they would respect.

This potential confidence-building measure comes in the run up to the so-called Geneva II peace conference on Syria which is due to take place in Switzerland next week.

There is still some jockeying over who will attend the conference and under what conditions.