After another night of thinking on this, and taking all emotion out of it, I just can't back Brazil.
Nostalgia got the best of me yesterday. And with a serious injury to one of their fullbacks during their most recent game, a position they're already weak in, it's hard to believe in this team. They have the best manager, yes, but their midfield and fullbacks won't be able to keep up. Too much has to go right for them to even make the Semis. I think England will knock them out when they meet in the quarter finals.
England is sliding under the radar, with France and Spain stealing most of the spotlight as the heavy favourites, but they have the best striker, a proven and pragmatic manager who knows how to win, and a deep squad with humble egos. They also have an easy path to the quarter finals. So they really only need to beat three quality teams. They've also shown in recent tournaments they can make it to the final of a big tournament and squeak out victories in close games. They just need that final push.
I have them beating Germany in the final because one way or another France and Spain are going to disappoint. Spain is dealing with injuries, its two key attackers are question marks going into this World Cup, and France is not as balanced in their midfield as other teams. They're extremely top heavy, and I think there's too many mouths to feed up front. England doesn't have that problem. There's one guy the ball should go to and he's been the best finisher in the last year.
In tournament football teams that dumb it down and play simple usually go further. I think Giroud will be a big miss for France. He played a key role in their last World Cup runs. They haven't replaced him. They need someone with his presence.
So I can see Germany beating both France and Spain, only to lose to England in the final. That would be a funny outcome. And objectively England is the better team with the better German manager.
And it will probably be a very boring, 1-0 final. I think we will see the best football in the round of 16 and quarter finals.
I still like Morocco to go far. And I think Portugal has as good of a chance as any to win it all. But it's time for England to win its second World Cup trophy. If it doesn't happen now, when they have one of the deepest teams and a striker scoring goals for fun, then it might take another sixty years.
